Liquids supply from non-DoC countries expected to grow by 0.8 mb/d in 2025 to 54.0 mb/d, 54.8 mb/d in 2026: OPEC

Vienna [Austria], May 15: Liquids supply from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (non-DoC) is expected to grow by 0.8 mb/d in 2025 to average 54.0 mb/d. Liquids output in the OECD (excluding Mexico) is expected to increase by 0.5 mb/d, y-o-y, mainly on the back of production increases in the US, Brazil, Canada and Norway.
A forecast published by the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for May said US crude oil and condensate production is anticipated to expand by 130 tb/d, y-o-y, with NGLs and biofuels expected to rise
by a combined around 200 tb/d. Canada's oil production, particularly from oil sands assets, is forecast to grow by about 120 tb/d, y-o-y.
North Sea production growth is projected at around 50 tb/d, y-o-y. In the non-OECD (excluding DoC countries), output is expected to rise by around 260 tb/d, y-o-y. Latin America is set to be the primary
contributor to liquids supply growth, with output anticipated to increase by about 250 tb/d, y-o-y. This is mainly due to several offshore ramp-ups and start-ups in key countries, as well as additional tight oil
production in Argentina.
In 2024, liquids supply from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (non-DoC) is estimated to have increased by 1.3 mb/d to average 53.2 mb/d. Most of the growth came from the US,
with liquids production increasing by 0.8 mb/d, y-o-y, mostly from non-conventional NGLs and tight oil. The latter increased by 0.3 mb/d, mostly from the Permian Basin, supported by efficiency improvements in
drilling and completion activities.
Output in the Bakken rose by just 24 tb/d, y-o-y, while production in the Eagle Ford and Niobrara witnessed only marginal increases, y-o-y. Canadian liquids supply in 2024 rose by around 0.25 mb/d, y-o-y, on the back of oil sand project expansions and NGLs growth. Argentina and China also contributed to production growth last year. Supply declines were seen in a number of countries, with the UK leading the way.
In 2026, non-DoC liquids supply is forecast to grow by 0.8 mb/d to average 54.8 mb/d. OECD liquids production (excluding Mexico) is expected to increase by 0.3 mb/d, y-o-y, with the US and Canada seeing growth of around 280 tb/d and 110 tb/d, respectively.
The US crude and condensate output is expected to rise by just 44 tb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, while NGLs production is forecast to rise by 190 tb/d, since it is expected that demand for natural gas remains strong in 2026.
Similar to 2025, Latin America is forecast to be the main non-OECD growth driver, accounting for more than 95% of the region's liquids output growth in 2026. These forecasts are expected to face some uncertainties, particularly given the ongoing macroeconomic developments across regions.
Source: Emirates News Agency